Crude Oil:-Has it topped out or just a correction?

July 12 , 2018

 

By looking at the daily technical chart we can see many choppy sessions after making the high of $75.24 level and from there we got the signal of weakness as the momentum was with the bulls and crude was trading above the moving average line but it was unable to move upside which was the signal of bull’s weakness. Well after a week’s tug of war between bulls and bears eventually bears won the match and took the pair at downside.

 

Crude oil is falling down because supply is set to increase once again. Libyan oil supply is set to come back and export operations will be reverse to “normal levels within the next few hours.” Some 800,000 barrels of oil per day will be exported again and this should calm fears of a growing oil shortage in the market. Meanwhile, more output is expected from the OPEC to hit the market as we head further into the second half of this year, most notably from Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader.

 

 

 

A bearish marabuzo candlestick or we can say that a bearish engulfing candlestick which engulfed almost last 10 day’s candle in just a single day has shown the complete blood bath in the crude oil. Well odds are in favor of bears and intraday bias remains bearish on the pair as long as $75 level remains intact. The presently selloff is a profit booking or a trend reversal ? this is still not sure for the time being, but once crude trade and settles below the $68 level then we will get further confirmation of bearish trend and we may say that trend has been changed.

 

 

From long term to intermediate point of view an uptrend line is sill valid and unbreached which indicates that the it may fall down to retest the uptrend line at downside. $66 is the immediate support level followed by $63 whereas $73 is immediate resistance followed by $75 level. MACD indicator has just given us a bearish crossover which indicates that it’s just a starting of bears let’s see what happen. and RSI is supporting the bears from overbought territory.

 

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