gold report 25-2019

Gold: Bulls won the battle at an initial phase, what next…?

Well yellow metal has shown strong counter attack on last Friday due to which bias has changed from bearish to bullish. In the last week we have seen roller coaster move on the daily chart where both bulls and bears were showing their strength and USD/INR played a vital role. The current scenario indicates that bulls are heading north side and 32320 is the only hurdle which we can see on the daily chart, a daily closing above this level will give us clear confirmation of trend reversal and will open the way towards the 33,000 level.

From technical prospective we can see that a potential rounding bottom pattern is in process of formation and presently pair is making base of the price pattern. Presently gold is trading and sustaining between the crossed moving average lines. Friday’s candle was bullish engulfing candlestick which is generating bullish signal itself. Well the way bulls has reacted at these levels it seems like short term downside momentum has been over now and for the long term traders it’s right time to buy once again. By applying the fibonacci retracement line we can see that it has retraced almost 61.8% level which is golden opportunity to buy once again. We will keep our short to intermediate bias bullish on the gold as long as 31500 remain intact. 

This week precious metal traders will continue to monitor movements in the U.S. dollar, one of the biggest factors for gold, with the greenback in turn taking its cue from expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plans on Tuesday. The US retail sales and CPI data is also scheduled in this week, giving them additional opportunities to reassure market watchers that they will take a patient approach towards monetary policy.

On international chart, despite the broad-based USD strength on Friday, the XAU/USD pair rose to a daily high near $1314 and started to move sideways ahead of the PMI data from the United States. The $1300 level is a psychological level and gold is trading near above that level. Last week gold moved up to $1320 but could not sustain and slipped to $1300 level which was another opportunity to buy again. We will keep our bias bullish on the gold as long as $1270 level remains intact. To have a real bullishness in the yellow metal, bulls need to trade and sustains above the $1320 level which will give further bullish momentum and bulls will get aggressive to arrive near to $1350 level.

After the Fed’s dot plot showed that the FOMC was expecting no rate hikes in 2019, the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield recorded sharp losses and extended its slide on Friday to touch its lowest level since last week of 2017 at 2.471% by losing nearly 2.5% on a daily basis. The traditional safe-havens such as gold and the JPY gathered strength with the risk-aversion staying as the main theme of the market. In this week main eyes will be on US GDP ( Annualized Q4) on Thursday.

Well long term to intermediate term trend is up so in an uptrend market buy on dips will be profitable strategy and every dips should be convert as buying opportunity. A bullish crossover on the MACD indicator is about to come which will be a recent development on the chart. RSI has come out from oversold territory and now it’s providing us fresh buy signal. The 32320 level is key resistance level followed by 32500 whereas 31600 is key support level followed by 31500 level.

Trade idea:-  Odds are in favor of bulls and daily to weekly bias remains bullish on the yellow metal so traders and investors are advised to go long at current market price in the range of 32100-32000 for the target of 32500 and 33000 and with the tight stop loss of 31500 level. Further add your long positions above 31500 level.

Copper:- Bears are receiving supply with potential double top pattern.

With the analysis of the daily and weekly chart of copper we can see that earlier copper was heading north side and was making successively higher highs and higher lows. The bulls were moving up by taking the support of an uptrend line. But the rally was limited to 468.65 level which was key resistance level on the daily chart as we can see it was previous swing’s high.

After reaching at the high bulls lost the grip from the market due the strong dollar and due to which we can seen reversal candlesticks, a shooting start candlestick on daily chart and a rickshaw man doji on weekly chart which was the clear indication of trend reversal price pattern. Even in the last week we can see a clear cut breakout of an uptrend line which was lying on the daily chart and was last hope for the bulls.

Presently copper is trading below the breached uptrend line and trading and sustaining below the minor EMA (9 & 14) lines but still holding above the 50 EMA and 200 SMA lines. The current scenario indicates one should go for short the copper on every bounce. Daily to weekly bias remains bearish on the copper and odds are in favor of bears for the time being.

The 439 level seems as stumble block for bears and a daily closing below this level will suggest that further add your short position for the target of 430 at least. The way bears are reacting it seems like bulls are getting weaker day by day and bears are getting stronger, even bears are not ready to stop in early stage , if other things remains constant.  

On the international chart, it’s just a starting once bears trade and settle below the mentioned breakout level 2.866 level then we may see further selloff or blood bath in the market till 2.750 levels at least. There are high chances that we may see further selloff and clear breakout of the mentioned level. From technical prospective we can see that a rounding top price pattern is in process of formation and the way bears are responding it looks like they will complete the mentioned price pattern at 2.560 levels in near term.

On MCX Copper, we can see a double top price pattern is in process of formation  which is a recent development and we will get clear confirmation once copper trades and settles below 439 level and it will open the way towards the 400 level in an intermediate term. A bearish crossover on the MACD is also favoring the bears. The RSI indicator is below 50 with no divergence is also generating bearish signal.

The 439 level is a key support level followed by a 430 level as major support level for the time being, on contrary 460 levels is a key resistance level followed by 468 levels as major key resistance level.

Trade idea:- Traders and investors are advised to go for short at 448-450 level for the target of 439 and 430 level and further add short position once it break and sustain below 439 level with the strict stop loss of 460 level.

EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD: Bulls have taken the charge to take it north.

The pair is showing high volatility as we can see that it is making both side movements on the daily chart. Presently it is trading and sustaining above the moving average lines which is generating bullish signal for the time being and two consecutive bullish marabuzo candlesticks are providing strength to the bulls.

By looking at the daily technical chart we can see that bulls have taken the charge and they are trying to take it towards north side. From a technical standpoint, a rounding bottom pattern has been formed on the daily chart which is suggesting us that bulls will arrive at 1.6350-1.6400 level at least.

A daily closing above the 1.6100 level will open the way towards the 1.6200 and 1.6300 level. Odds are in favor of bulls and intraday bias remains bullish on the pair as long as 1.5900 level remains intact.

The way bulls are reacting it seems like bulls have snatched the bite from bear’s mouth and it’s a clear indication of trend reversal i.e. pair has bottomed out. Traders need to pay close attention to the overall risk appetite in the markets when trading the EUR/AUD pair. Risk currencies have not been well supported by developments in international trade policies, which could continue to weigh on NZD and AUD. Only if the EUR/AUD pair manages to form a bullish reversal candlestick pattern with today’s close then we can consider further long the pair.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned upside after it hit its respective downside resistance line, and then crossed above 50, while the MACD, already given a bullish crossover from the over sold territory.  The 1.5800 is immediate support level followed by 1.5700 level whereas 1.6200 level is immediate resistance level followed by 1.6350.

nzdusd26-02-2019

NZD/USD: Bulls has entered into triangle pattern

By looking at the daily chart we can see that bulls has entered into a triangle pattern where we can see a small consolidation phase, which is suggesting us to sit aside and wait for the valid breakout. A short term uptrend line is also lying on the daily technical chart which is providing us bullish signal. Traders are advised to go for long above 0.7000 level which is good sign for bulls.

From past couple of weeks pair is performing very well and heading towards norths side as we can see that every candle is making suceessively higher highs and higher lows on the daily technical chart. By analyzing the price action on the daily chart anyone can guess about this pair that pair is in uptrend and heading towards north side. The way bulls are reacting it seems like they are approaching the 0.7250 level in near term.

In our previous report also we mentioned to buy this pair I hope readers must have made profit from this 250 pips move. Earlier pair was falling down with strong bearish pressure. and was trading and sustaining below the moving average lines but now scenerio has been changed and candles are turned up and sustaining above the major and minor EMA lines.

Pair has got bounced from the fibonacci retracement line i.e. 61.8% level which is a psychological level. Odds are in favor of bulls and intraday bias remains bullish on the pair as long as 0.6750 level remains intact.On contrary a daily closing below the 0.6750 level will  change the outlook from bullish to bearish and it will open the way towards the 0.6500.

The 0.7000 level can be considered as strong key resistance level followed by 0.7100 level whereas 0.6750 level can be considered as strong key support level followed by 0.6650 level. A bullish crossover has been occurred on the MACD indicator  which is a recent development on the chart and it is also generting bullish signal and strengthening the bulls and RSI is also supporting the bulls from positive territory.

gbpchf

GBP/CHF: Bulls arrived at make or break level, what next?

By looking at the daily chart we can see that currently pair has arrived at 1.3132 level which is a key resistance level as we can see that two consecutive swing’s are lying over there and a valid breakout of this level will open the way towards the 1.3500 level. There are high chances that we may see bullish breakout of this resistance level as we can see that every candle is making successively higher highs and higher lows.

The short term to intermediate term trend is up so in an uptrend market always buy on dips which will be profitable strategy. From technical prospective we can see that pair has retraced exact 50% from 1.3842 to 1.2468 level so from here once again we are expecting that bulls will follow the main trend which is 61.8%. presently pair is trading and sustaining above the moving avearge line which is providing us bullish signal. Traders and investors are advised to go for long 1.3200 with the strict stop loss of 1.30000.  

Odds are in favor of bulls and intraday bias remains bullish on the pair as long as 1.3000 level remains intact. A bullish crossover on MACD indicator along with a bullish divergence on MACD is supporting the bulls and RSI is also favoring the bulls from above 50 territory. The 1.2950 is immediate support level followed by 1.2850 level whereas 1.3250 level is immediate resistance level followed by 1.3350.